This factor calculates the weighted expected return based on the analyst's target price. The core is to assign different weights to different analysts' target price forecasts. The calculation method of the weight $w_i$ needs to be combined with a specific verification method, but the general idea is: if the subsequent stock price trend is consistent with the analyst's target return direction, the analyst's forecast will be given a greater weight, otherwise it will be given a smaller weight or even a negative weight. For example, the following method can be used to calculate the weight $w_i$:

1. Prediction direction accuracy: Calculate the actual stock return from the target price release date to the end of the month (or a specific period). If the return is consistent with the analyst's forecast return direction, the forecast will initially receive a higher weight.

2. Prediction range: The closer the return range, the higher the weight should be.

3. Time decay: The newer the forecast weight should be higher

4. Historical forecast performance: The historical forecast performance of analysts can be used to assign different initial weights, and the forecasts of analysts with better performance will be given higher weights.

Through this weighting method, this factor aims to capture the market's consensus expectations of future stock prices and attach more importance to the views of analysts with stronger forecasting capabilities. It should be noted that the method of calculating weights in actual applications can be adjusted and optimized according to specific strategies and data.