Factors Directory

Quantitative Trading Factors

Analysts' expected year-over-year change in yield

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factor.formula

Analysts' expected year-over-year change in yield, calculated as:

This formula calculates the difference between the weighted expected return of analysts at the current point in time and the weighted expected return of analysts at the same time last year.

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    The weighted expected return of analysts at the current time point (t). It is usually calculated based on the latest target price and current stock price of all analysts covering the stock. The weighting method may include: the weight of analyst ratings, the weight of analyst coverage times, or the weight of analyst historical performance, etc. The specific weight needs to be determined based on actual conditions. The specific calculation method is: weighted sum of the expected return (target price - current stock price) / current stock price given by all analysts. The formula can be expressed as E_t = ∑(w_i * R_i), where R_i is the expected return given by the i-th analyst, and w_i is its corresponding weight. The choice of weighting method needs to take actual conditions into consideration.

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    The weighted expected return of analysts at the same time last year (t-Y). Y usually represents a one-year period. The calculation method is the same as E_t, except that last year's data is used. The specific calculation method is: weighted sum of the expected returns given by all analysts at the same time last year (target price - stock price at the same time last year) / stock price at the same time last year. The formula can be expressed as E_{t-Y} = ∑(w_i * R_{i,t-Y}), where R_{i,t-Y} is the expected return given by the i-th analyst at the same time last year, and w_i is its corresponding weight. The weight needs to be consistent with the current period.

factor.explanation

This factor captures the signal of analysts' changes in their expectations for future earnings of a stock. A positive value indicates that analysts have generally raised their earnings expectations for the stock, which may indicate the potential for a rise in stock prices; a negative value indicates a downward revision in expectations, which may indicate the risk of a fall in stock prices. It should be noted that analysts' expectations are not always accurate, and the factor itself has a certain lag. In addition, different stocks may have different sensitivities to this factor, and a comprehensive analysis needs to be conducted in combination with other factors.

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