Factors Directory

Quantitative Trading Factors

Return Momentum Consistency

Emotional FactorsTechnical Factors

factor.formula

Return Momentum Consistency (ID):

in:

  • :

    The cumulative return of the past 12 months, excluding the return data of the most recent month. The return calculation here uses logarithmic return rather than arithmetic return to ensure the symmetry and additivity of the return. The return data of the most recent month is excluded to avoid the interference of short-term information on long-term trends, and can be regarded as a certain degree of control over the short-term reversal effect.

  • :

    To calculate the proportion of down days during the $PRET$ period. When calculating, trading days with no price changes are not counted as down or up days, and only trading days with non-zero increase or decrease are considered. The denominator is the total number of trading days with non-zero increase or decrease.

  • :

    To calculate the proportion of rising trading days during the $PRET$ period. When calculating, for trading days with no price changes, falling or rising trading days are not counted, and only trading days with non-zero rise or fall are considered. The denominator is the total number of trading days with non-zero rise or fall.

factor.explanation

This factor is based on the view in behavioral finance that "investors under-react to continuous information". The author believes that investors under-react to frequent but small stock price changes with strong continuity, but are more sensitive to a few but significant stock price changes. Therefore, when the cumulative return in the past 12 months is positive (that is, $PRET$ is positive), if the proportion of falling trading days is higher than the proportion of rising trading days (that is, $%neg > %pos$), it means that the market has experienced many small declines during the rise, and the information continuity is strong. Then the value of this factor is negative, and the expected future return will be lower; on the contrary, if the cumulative return in the past 12 months is positive, and the proportion of rising trading days is higher than the proportion of falling trading days, then the value of this factor is positive, and the expected future return will be higher. Conversely, when the cumulative return in the past 12 months is negative, the logic is reversed. Therefore, the higher the factor, the higher the consistency between the direction of the return and the direction of the proportion of rising and falling trading days, and the higher the expected future return. This factor mainly captures the consistency of the return trend and can be used to measure the strength of the momentum effect of the market. It should be noted that this factor does not directly measure momentum, but measures the consistency between the momentum of returns and the continuity of information. The lower the absolute value, the stronger the information continuity, which also indirectly indicates that the market's reaction to stock price changes is weaker, and vice versa.

Related Factors