The proportion of closing volume
factor.formula
The calculation formula of closing volume ratio is:
The parameters in the formula are defined as follows:
- :
It represents the trading volume of the ith stock from 14:30 to 15:00 (i.e. the closing period) on the nth trading day, usually in shares.
- :
It represents the total trading volume of the ith stock on the nth trading day, usually in shares. This trading volume includes the trading volume of all periods of the day.
- :
Represents the trading day number in chronological order, n=t is the current trading day, n=t-1 is the previous trading day, and so on.
- :
Indicates the length of the lookback time window selected when calculating this factor. For monthly stock selection strategies, T=20 trading days is usually selected; for weekly stock selection strategies, T=5 trading days is usually selected. The value of T can be adjusted according to actual needs.
- :
It indicates the ratio of the closing volume of the ith stock to the total volume of the day on the nth trading day. This is a value between 0 and 1.
- :
It represents the average value of the closing volume of the ith stock in the past T trading days. This calculation process effectively smooths the single-day fluctuations and makes the factor more stable.
factor.explanation
The tail-end volume ratio factor is negatively correlated with the stock's future returns, which means that stocks with a higher proportion of tail-end volume tend to have lower future returns. This phenomenon may be attributed to the following points: 1. Tail-end speculative behavior: The tail-end period may be full of speculative behavior, and some investors may try to influence the stock price by trading before the close. This irrational trading behavior may cause the stock price to deviate from its intrinsic value; 2. Differences between informed and uninformed traders: Uninformed traders such as retail investors may be more inclined to trade in the tail-end to avoid intraday fluctuations due to their low risk tolerance. Informed traders such as institutional investors may be more inclined to trade in the morning due to their information advantage. This difference in trading behavior may lead to information asymmetry in the tail-end period, thereby affecting the rationality of stock prices. Therefore, the tail-end volume ratio can be used as an indicator to measure market sentiment and investor behavior, which helps to capture potential abnormal signals in the market. In practical applications, this factor is often used in combination with other factors to improve the effectiveness of stock selection strategies.