Factors Directory

Quantitative Trading Factors

Expected P/E ratio change rate

Value FactorGrowth Factors

factor.formula

Expected P/E ratio change rate:

in:

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    The forward P/E ratio at the current time point is usually calculated based on analysts’ consensus expectations and earnings forecasts for the next 12 months.

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    The forward P/E ratio three months ago is also calculated using the consensus analyst expectations and the earnings forecast for the next 12 months.

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    The absolute value of the forward P/E ratio three months ago ensures that the base of the calculated percentage change rate is always positive.

factor.explanation

This factor essentially measures the change in the market's expectations for a company's future earnings, as reflected in the extent of the adjustment in the price-to-earnings ratio. A positive value indicates that the current expected price-to-earnings ratio is higher than three months ago, which may mean that the market's optimistic expectations for the company's profitability have increased, but it may also reflect that the increase in stock prices has exceeded the increase in earnings expectations, and there is a certain valuation premium risk. Negative values ​​are the opposite. This factor can be used to identify situations where valuations diverge from earnings expectations and assist in judging investment opportunities or risks. It should be noted that the expected price-to-earnings ratio itself is affected by the accuracy of analysts' forecasts, so the effectiveness of this factor also has certain limitations. At the same time, in extreme cases, if the expected price-to-earnings ratio three months ago is close to zero, the factor will fail, so extreme values ​​need to be processed when used.

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