Factors Directory

Quantitative Trading Factors

Tail asymmetric probability difference

Emotional FactorsVolatility Factor

factor.formula

Tail asymmetric probability difference (E_p):

In the formula:

  • :

    Represents the idiosyncratic return of the stock $ε_{i,d}$, which is estimated by the linear regression model $R_{i,d} = α_i + β_iR_{m,d} + γ_iR_{n,d} + ε_{i,d}$. Among them, $R_{i,d}$ is the return of stock i on day d, $R_{m,d}$ is the market return, and $R_{n,d}$ is the industry return. $\alpha_i$ is the intercept term of stock i, $\beta_i$ is the exposure of stock i to market risk, and $\gamma_i$ is the exposure of stock i to industry risk. $\epsilon_{i,d}$ represents the idiosyncratic return of stock i on day d, that is, the return after deducting the market and industry effects, which reflects the company's own unique risks and returns.

  • :

    It is the threshold used to define extreme tail events, which represents the degree to which the return rate deviates from the mean. Positive and negative k define the boundaries of positive and negative extreme return events respectively. Usually, k takes a value between 1 and 2. For example, 1.5 times the standard deviation can be used as the threshold, that is, k = 1.5. The size of this value will affect the calculation of the tail probability. It is recommended to select an appropriate threshold based on the data distribution and specific application scenarios.

  • :

    Represents the probability density function of the characteristic return x, which describes the probability distribution of the characteristic return within each value range.

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    It represents the probability that the characteristic return x is greater than or equal to k, that is, the probability of a positive extreme event occurring.

  • :

    It represents the probability that the characteristic return rate x is less than or equal to -k, that is, the probability of a negative extreme event occurring.

factor.explanation

The tail asymmetric probability difference is designed to quantify the asymmetry of stock return distribution, especially the difference in the probability of occurrence of extreme tail return events. When the factor is positive, it means that the probability of a stock experiencing a sharp rise in the past period of time is greater than the probability of a sharp fall. This phenomenon may reflect the market's optimism about the stock, causing investors to tend to chase the rise. However, this chasing behavior may cause the stock price to deviate from its intrinsic value and increase the risk of future price corrections. Therefore, this factor can be used as a tool to measure market sentiment and assess potential risks. Investors can combine other fundamental and technical indicators to comprehensively judge the investment value of the stock.

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