Multi-period Moving Average Price Ratio Momentum
factor.formula
Moving average price calculation formula:
Normalization formula (moving average price ratio):
in:
- :
The closing price of stock j on the ith trading day in month t, where i varies from d-L+1 to d and d is the last trading day of the month.
- :
The closing price of stock j on the last trading day (d) of month t.
- :
The window width of the moving average, in trading days.
- :
The moving average price of stock j calculated on the last trading day (d) of month t, with L as the time window.
- :
The ratio of the moving average price of stock j calculated with L as the time window on the last trading day (d) of t month to the closing price of that day, that is, the standardized moving average price ratio.
factor.explanation
This factor captures the trend momentum of stocks at different time scales by calculating the ratio of the moving average price of different time windows (e.g., L=3, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 400, 600, 800, 1000 trading days) to the latest closing price. Moving averages of different time spans can reflect trend signals at different levels. For example, a short-term moving average may reflect short-term momentum, while a long-term moving average may reflect a long-term trend or reversal. In order to eliminate the impact of the absolute value difference of different stock prices, we choose to use the ratio of the moving average price to the closing price of the day to measure momentum, so that the factor is comparable between different stocks. By using multiple time windows, the factor can comprehensively examine the momentum or reversal signals on different time scales, thereby improving the ability to predict future stock returns. This factor can be used as the basis for cross-sectional neutralization of other factors (such as liquidity factor and outstanding share ratio factor) to extract purer momentum signals. In practical applications, it is usually necessary to combine other risk factors for optimization to improve the stability and yield of the strategy.