Factors Directory

Quantitative Trading Factors

Monthly Consumer Index Year-on-Year Change

Consumer IndexFundamental factorsGrowth Factors

factor.formula

Monthly Consumer Index (SALESINDEX)

Monthly Consumer Index Year-on-Year Change Rate (ΔSALES)

in:

  • :

    is the total daily sales of listed company i in the consumer sector on the (\theta)th day of month t.

  • :

    The index of the number of consumers of listed company i in the consumer sector on the day (\theta) of month t is used to eliminate sales fluctuations caused by changes in the number of consumers, such as seasonal changes, holiday effects, etc. The index can be the number of active consumers per day, or other indicators that can reflect changes in the number of consumers.

  • :

    Represents the set of all trading days in the tth month.

  • :

    Represents listed companies in the consumer sector.

  • :

    Indicates the current month. For example, if t=13, it means January of the following year.

factor.explanation

This factor reflects the growth or contraction trend of consumer demand by calculating the year-on-year change rate of the monthly consumer index of listed companies in the consumer sector. The monthly consumer index is calculated by summing up the company's daily sales within the month and normalizing it using the consumer quantity adjustment index. The year-on-year change rate measures the difference between the consumer index of the current month and the same period last year. The theoretical basis of this factor is that consumer spending is an important part of economic activities and can reflect changes in the macro economy and consumer confidence. At the same time, current consumption has a direct impact on future corporate revenue and profits. Empirical studies have shown that consumption data has a significant positive correlation with the company's earnings in the next three quarters. Especially in the non-essential consumer goods sector, this correlation is more obvious in small and medium-cap stocks. The factor is positively correlated with future stock returns, indicating that the expansion of consumption usually indicates an increase in company revenue and profitability, thereby driving up stock prices.

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