Normalized Quarterly Revenue Surprise
factor.formula
Standardized quarterly revenue surprise = (current quarter actual revenue - current quarter consensus revenue expectation) / std(last eight quarters revenue surprise)
in:
- :
Actual operating income for the current quarter t
- :
The market's expected operating income for the current quarter t, usually the median or average of analysts' estimates
- :
The standard deviation of revenue surprises over the past eight quarters (including the current quarter) is used to normalize the revenue surprise. Revenue surprise is calculated as the current quarter actual revenue minus the current quarter consensus revenue expectation.
factor.explanation
This factor is designed to capture the extent to which a company's quarterly revenue exceeds market expectations and is normalized using the volatility of revenue surprises over the past eight quarters. A positive value indicates that the company's revenue performance exceeds expectations, which may trigger a positive reaction in market sentiment and push up stock prices; a negative value indicates that the company's revenue performance is lower than expected, which may trigger a negative reaction in market sentiment and depress stock prices. This factor exploits the post-earnings announcement price drift effect, which indicates that after the earnings announcement is released, the stock price will continue to drift in the direction implied by the announcement information for a period of time. This factor takes into account the historical volatility of revenue surprises, thereby making a fairer comparison of revenue surprises across different companies or at different points in time. A larger standardized revenue surprise may indicate a stronger stock price reaction than a smaller standardized revenue surprise.